It’s now three weeks to the presidential election
on March 28, and things are shaping up already
for the big day. The parties are rounding off
their campaigns. INEC is doing mock elections
to test run its equipment and operations. The
world is watching what’s going to happen in the
coming weeks.
Who will win this election?
A commentator on political issues, Adedayo
Ademuwagun, has compiled a list of states
where it is likely APC candidate, Gen.
Muhammadu Buhari, will lose the polls.
Muhammadu Buhari has undoubtedly had a
phenomenal run in this election. He’s
transformed from being a bigoted strongman to
being charismatic leader that people nationwide
now look up to for change. He might just well
win this election.
However, there are some states where Buhari
might lose this election based on recent history
and the sociopolitical circumstances in those
states. Here are 17 states where this might
happen.
1. Benue
Benue is a predominantly Christian state in the
middle belt. In the last election Jonathan best
Buhari here and clinched over 66% of the votes.
Buhari might lose here again this year. The state
is run by a PDP government.
2. Kogi
Jonathan soundly beat Buhari in Kogi in 2011. He
got 70% of the votes. Kogi has a significant
Christian population and is governed by the PDP.
3. Plateau
Jonathan defeated Buhari in Plateau by a wide
margin last time. Plateau is mainly Christian and
has a PDP government.
4. Abuja
This is the seat of government where President
Jonathan is in charge. He grabbed over two-
thirds of the votes in 2011 and won comfortably.
The federal government-run things in Abuja and
this could be a disadvantage to Buhari.
5. Taraba
Buhari only mustered half the number of votes
Jonathan won in this state last time. It’s a
mainly Christian state and the government is
PDP.
6. Adamawa
Buhari bowed to Jonathan here in 2011. It’s one
of the two states in the northeast where Buhari
lost to Jonathan. It’s a predominantly Christian
state.
7. Abia
Jonathan won 99% of the votes here while
Buhari won less than 1%. The east is Buhari’s
worst nightmare. Abia is mainly Christian.
8. Ebonyi
Again Buhari fared woefully here last time. He
didn’t even get 1,000 votes here. The PDP is in
charge in Ebonyi.
9. Anambra
Anambra is run by the APGA but the people are
leaning towards Jonathan. Anambra is the heart
of Igbo territory. A Buhari victory is unlikely here.
10. Enugu
Like Anambra, Enugu is the heart of Igbo
territory. Jonathan neatly beat Buhari here last
time. The general didn’t get 0.5% of the votes
here. The people are likely going to vote
Jonathan. It’s a PDP state.
11. Bayelsa
A Buhari win in Bayelsa will be a complete
miracle. This is Jonathan’s home. He swept
virtually all the votes here last time. It may not
happen like that again this month, but surely his
people will get behind him.
12. Delta
This state is strongly PDP and more likely to vote
Jonathan than Buhari. Jonathan won over 98% of
the votes here in 2011. Buhari hardly commands
any following in this state.
13. Edo
Governor Oshiomhole’s popularity has dwindled in
the past few years and so even though the state
government is run by Buhari’s party, it’s not
certain that the general would take the prize
here. But it’s possible.
14. Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom voted resoundingly for Jonathan in
2011 and it’s a PDP state. Buhari will have a
hard time taking this state.
15. Cross Rivers
Cross Rivers has a PDP government. Buhari lost
to Jonathan here in the previous election.
Jonathan is more likely to win here despite
everything.
16. Ekiti
Ekiti is one of two states in the west controlled
by the PDP. The governor is chiefly behind
Jonathan and he’s got a huge grassroots
following. He’s a man of the people. He’s
capable of swaying his people.
17. Ondo
Ondo is the other state in the west controlled by
the PDP. Like Governor Fayose of Ekiti, Ondo
governor Mimiko also has a strong grassroots
following and is backing Jonathan. But maybe
Buhari can surmount the challenge and snatch a
win in this state.
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